A new report by the National Research Council of the National Academies of Science paints a bleak picture of the future that lies ahead.
The Executive Summary begins with a simple statement of fact: Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate.
After documenting the extent to which human activities have added to the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the report further states that the carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for many centuries.
According to this study, for every rise of 1 degree Celsius, there is 5% to 10% less rain, 5% to 10% lower river flows, 5% to 10% smaller crops, 5% to 10% more wildfires. Not to mention more extreme weather, rising sea levels and mass human, animal and plant migrations.
Here's the killer sentence in the report: Emission reductions larger than 80% (relative to whatever peak global emission rate may be reached) are required to approximately stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen target level. Even greater reductions in emissions would be required to maintain stabilized concentrations in the longer term.
Is there anyone reading this who thinks that any government at any time will ever come close to achieving emissions reductions larger than 80%? You sure as hell won't hear any politician making that kind of commitment. So what does that tell you?
If the science and the scientists are right, we are doomed to a major change in the planet's climate, one that will persist for centuries unless massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions begin now. Our grandchildren will be living in a world that will be very different from the one we see around us today. And they won't be thanking us for the change.
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